On Tuesday (July 1) in the Asian session, international oil prices weakened slightly, and Brent crude oil is currently trading around $66.36 per barrel. According to market research, four OPEC+ insiders revealed last week that the organization plans to increase crude oil production by another 411,000 barrels per day in August. This increase will continue the continuous increase in production since May. If approved, OPEC+'s total production increase in 2025 will reach 1.78 million barrels per day, equivalent to more than 1.5% of global oil demand. OPEC+ is scheduled to hold a meeting on July 6, when it will finalize the production strategy for August, and the market will remain on the sidelines before then.

In addition to supply concerns, uncertainty in the US foreign trade policy also puts pressure on oil prices. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that despite continued good-faith negotiations among countries, if no agreement is reached before July 9, the United States may restore the high tariffs ranging from 11% to 50% announced on April 2. This move will end the current temporary 10% tariff level. This policy uncertainty is gradually suppressing the market's confidence in the global economic recovery, thereby limiting the room for oil prices to rise.

From the daily level, crude oil fluctuates upward in the medium term and tests around 78. The K-line closes with a large real negative line. It has not yet destroyed the moving average system and is still supported. The medium-term objective trend remains upward. However, from the perspective of momentum, the MACD indicator crosses downward above the zero axis, indicating that the bullish momentum is weakening, and it is expected that the medium-term trend of crude oil will fall into a high-level oscillation pattern.

The short-term (1H) trend of crude oil has continued to fluctuate in a narrow range for several trading days. Oil prices have fallen from the upper edge of the range to the lower edge of the range. The short-term objective trend direction is oscillating. In terms of momentum, the MACD indicator is at the zero axis position, and the long and short forces are equal. It is expected that the trend of crude oil will maintain a shock consolidation pattern. Overall, the operation strategy of crude oil today is mainly to rebound high and to buy low. Crude oil strategy: short at the high of 65.7-65.7, cover the position once at 66.2, defend at 66.8, and hold at 64.3-63.8.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.