In early Asian trading on Friday (June 27), U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by $0.33 to $65.57 per barrel, up 0.51%, while Brent crude futures gained $0.34 to $68.07 per barrel, an increase of 0.5%. Despite the modest rebound, both major benchmarks have fallen around 12% this week—marking one of the sharpest corrections in recent months.

The primary trigger for the early-week price decline was U.S. President Trump's announcement that Iran and Israel had reached a comprehensive ceasefire agreement, easing concerns over potential supply disruptions stemming from escalating conflict. The market reacted swiftly, sending prices to their lowest in over a week on Tuesday. However, data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a decline in both crude and refined product inventories, alongside a pickup in refining activity and stronger demand—offering fresh support to the market. Additionally, the U.S. dollar index hit a three-year low, providing further upward pressure on oil prices. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remarked on Thursday that “the outcome of the Israel-Iran war presents a historic opportunity for peace, and Israel must not waste it,” further easing market concerns about Middle East supply disruptions.

While geopolitical risks in the Middle East have subsided, international oil prices still posted a near 12% loss this week. Nonetheless, the seasonal increase in fuel demand from U.S. summer driving activity helped fuel a modest rebound on Friday. The Bitop market analysis team noted that President Trump’s intention to fast-track the nomination of the next Federal Reserve Chair has raised expectations of a potential rate cut, weakening the dollar. Since oil is priced in U.S. dollars, a weaker dollar increases its attractiveness to holders of other currencies, potentially boosting crude demand. Traders are advised to monitor the upcoming Fed event hosted by John Williams, daily inventory changes on China's Shanghai International Energy Exchange, and continue to closely watch geopolitical developments and OPEC+ production policy. Particular attention should be paid to any renewed escalation in the Middle East.

On the daily chart, oil prices show signs of stabilization. After breaking below key support at $64 earlier this week, prices quickly rebounded and are now attempting to reclaim the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. A long lower shadow on the candlestick indicates strong buying interest at the bottom, suggesting the market may be entering a short-term technical rebound phase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered from oversold territory, signaling reduced selling pressure. A confirmed breakout above the $66.50 short-term resistance level could open the path toward the $68.80 range; conversely, a renewed break below $64 would likely lead to a decline toward the $62.50 level. Overall, oil prices are in a near-term rebound within a broader range-bound structure, but a full trend reversal has yet to occur.

On the 1-hour chart, price action remains in a narrow consolidation range with minimal volatility. Oil prices are oscillating around the moving averages, reflecting a neutral short-term trend. Momentum remains balanced between bulls and bears, suggesting that intraday price movement will likely stay range-bound.

For today’s crude oil trading strategy, it is recommended to focus primarily on short-selling on rebounds, with buying on dips as a secondary approach.Key resistance is seen at the $67.5–$68.5 range.Key support is seen at the $63.0–$62.0 range.

Disclaimer: None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy